Jim:
After
two weeks of basketball, we have arrived at the Final Four. This has
been quite an interesting tournament. It has had some really exciting
moments, but to be completely honest, it has been, for the most part, a
sub-par tournament. The quality of play has been some of the worst I
can remember in any tournament during my entire life. I am not going to
get into the details of why I believe the quality of college basketball
has declined recently, suffice it to say, play has gotten so sloppy
that during the Syracuse vs. Marquette Elite 8 game, I turned the TV on
mute and chose to read a book (well, it was a book about college basketball),
instead of watching an absolutely awful performance from Marquette.
The Golden Eagles scored a total of... wait for it.... 39 points. They
shot a whopping 21% from the field. Blah. I think there are many
issues with college basketball that need to be addressed, shot clock,
restricted zone, charge/block call, time outs, one-and-done players,
etc, but that's not my job, I am here to make some Final Four
predictions. So that I what I will do. Here are my predictions for
Saturday's games.
Louisville vs. Wichita State
For
those of you who are all upset that you did not have the foresight to
predict Wichita State making the Final Four, I have only one thing to
say to you, of the over 5 million brackets submitted on ESPN.com, only
0.2% of people predicted that Wichita State would be in the Final Four.
And lets be honest about it, 99% of those 0.2% of brackets who picked
Wichita State are either current students, alumni, fans (I don't know if
they have any fans that aren't either students or alumni), or 3 year
old kids who picked them just because. So don't feel bad that you did
not pick Wichita State to make it to the Final Four, none of us did.
On
the other hand, every person who I know picked Louisville to make it to
the Final Four. Almost 55% of the brackets on ESPN.com had Louisville
playing in Atlanta. So this really is a match-up of one team that
everyone believed would be there and another team that no one could have
predicted would make it this far.
So
can the Shockers get what would be their most shocking victory of the
tournament so far (I promise, no more Shocker's puns)? Of the many
important elements to this game, I see there being one major key if the
Shockers want to win. Wichita State is a very talented team and does
not have to play perfect to win this game, they just have to play almost
perfect. The built up a 20 point lead against Ohio State in the first
35 minutes of the game when the Buckeye's allowed them to bring the ball
up court and played a half-court defense. In those final 5 minutes of
the game, Ohio State began to press and that big lead
quickly evaporated to the point that I was sure Ohio State was about to
win the game. My biggest concern with Wichita State is whether or not
they can handle the pressure of Louisville from the opening tip. The
Cardinals press after almost every made basket and although they do
often back off after the ball is inbounded, they will not make it easy
for Wichita State to get the ball into the front court, set up their
offense, and take a good shot. I think the Shockers will be forced into
many late clock situations where they have to take whatever shot is
available, good, bad, or awful. I also think it is important for
Wichita State not to fall behind early. If they are forced to play
catch-up the entire game, it will be near impossible for them to win.
If they are able to keep the game to single digits, they could have a
period of 4 minutes in the second half where they go on a run and take
the lead late. But if they fall behind too much too early, I don't
think they can orchestrate a run sufficient to take the lead and win the
game.
I
do think Wichita State has a shot, but unless the injury to Kevin Ware
hurts Louisville more than it motivates them, I don't think the Shockers
will shock anyone Saturday night (Sorry, I had to use the pun one final
time).
Syracuse vs. Michigan
There
is one key and one key only to this game (well, there is more than one
key, but this is pretty much the only one that matters). Can Michigan
figure out how to be successful against Syracuse's zone defense? That's
it, if Michigan can figure out the zone, they will win. They are more
talented on offense than Syracuse is, so if the zone isn't working and
Michigan can score, Syracuse will not have the offense to keep up with
the Wolverines. Because Syracuse has been so successful on defense
during the tournament, it is easy to forget that there have been several
teams this year who have solved and had success with the Syracuse zone.
If Michigan is able to get a good idea from watching tape of where the
weaknesses are in the zone, then they have a change at winning. One of
the best tapes for Michigan to watch would be the Big East Championship game
between Syracuse and Louisville. In the first half of that game,
Syracuse held Louisville to only 22 points and had a 13 point lead at
the break. But the second 20 minutes was a complete different story as
Louisville outscored Syracuse by 30 points. If Michigan can figure out
what Louisville did differently from the first to the second half, maybe
they have hope of solving the unsolvable zone.
One
of the big issues for Syracuse in their loss to Louisville was their
turnovers. The Orange had 19 turnovers which led to fast
break opportunities for the Cardinals and did not allow Syracuse to set
their zone on defense. Michigan will want to run and score fast, while
Syracuse will want to play a half-court game allowing their zone to
annoy and frustrate Michigan. Whoever controls the tempo of the game
will win. If Michigan is able to score 60 to 70 points, that will be a
sign that they are playing their tempo and their style of basketball and
I can almost guarantee a victory for the Maize and Blue. But if the
score is in the 40's, Syracuse will be playing their style of game and
has a better shot at beating Michigan. So that I don't end up reading a
book, lets hope, for the sanity of each one of us, that Michigan is
able to score and at least make this game exciting and worth watching.
But like Jim Boeheim always does in the semi-final game (3-0 in his
previous trips to the Final Four), I think Syracuse will win setting up a
rematch of the Big East title game. Having said that and having gone
on record as picking Syracuse in this game, if Trey Burke is able to be
the magic man that he was against Kansas, Michigan can and should win.
But something is telling me that the Syracuse zone will not allow the
Wooden Player of the Year to get into a groove and do what he has done
so many times this year, score and distribute to shooters.
Clark:
This tournament has had a ton of upsets. History has been made on many occasions. FGCU was the first #15 seed to ever reach the sweet 16. Wichita State made the Final Four for the first time since 1965, or 48 years. These are just a couple that immediately come to mind.
There have also been some incredible finishes. Marquette and Davidson, Memphis and St. Marys, La Salle and Ole Miss, Ohio State and Iowa State, Ohio State and Arizona, and Michigan and Kansas all had edge-of-your-seat finishes! As Jim said, some of the games have been very sloppy, but there have also been a number of incredible, but for some, heartbreaking games!!
All of this has led us to perhaps the most exciting event in all of college sports: the Final Four. Nearly everyone expected Louisville to be there. Practically nobody expected Wichita State. Syracuse and Michigan were probably picked by a large number of Tournament Challenge contestants. These should be some great games, so sit back and enjoy the show!
Louisville vs Wichita State
As stated above, Wichita State has not made the Final Four since 1965. That's 48 years! Wichita State is a great team with some talented players, such as Malcom Armstead. While I never expected them to get to the Final Four, as soon as the bracket was released, I was very confident that they would beat Gonzaga in the second round (everyone thought I was crazy). Sadly, I let my brother-in-law talk me into taking Pittsburgh (stupid mistake, I know).
Congratulations are due to Wichita State for making it this far, but they don't stand a chance against Louisville. Louisville have outscored their previous tournament opponents by an average of 22 points. The only team to keep it within single digits was Oregon, who got it under 10 with a meaningless shot at the final buzzer. Louisville's defense is intense and enduring. They pressure teams into multiple turnovers, and are incredible at scoring in transition. Wichita State has not faced a defense like this before. Their young team will have to play nearly perfect to avoid not getting smothered by Louisville's relentless attack.
Also contributing to Louisville's cause is their injured teammate, Kevin Ware. After he gruesomely broke his leg in their last game against Duke, he has made remarkable progress and is with the team in Atlanta. They will win it for them and for him. They will not lose this game. They are favored by 10.5 points, but I think they will win by about 15.
My pick: Louisville by double digits (around 15)
Confidence: 80% (100% to win the game)
Michigan vs Syracuse
Jim had a great write-up about this game above. I agree with him on every point. @ESPNStreak tweeted today that Michigan's coach, John Beilein has never won against Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, going 0 - 9 against him. However, I think history is made again in this tournament, and Beilein finally gets a win againt Boeheim.
In his write-up above, Jim nailed it on the head about the key to winning this game is Michigan's ability to play against the zone. Syracuse's 2 - 3 zone defense is extremely effective, unless you know how to play against it. Louisville and Georgetown are two prime examples that played effectively against the zone and beat Syracuse by large margins. I don't know if Michigan will beat Syracuse by a large margin, but I do believe they can figure out the zone and win.
Michigan is favored by 2 in this game. I think they may win by about 5, but I would be surprised if it is by double digits. Trey Burke and Mitch McGary will have to continue their phenomenal play for Michigan to do so. They are on a mission right now, and luckily are not the only talent on their team. Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. are also playing very well.
My pick: Michigan by single digits
Confidence: 70%
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